Adult social care workforce, 2026: vacancies fall to a decade low but growth slows

This article is for care home owners, home care agencies and supported living providers who want to know what the latest workforce figures mean for their business. Skills for Care's annual report on the adult social care workforce in England, covering the year to March 2026, is the most detailed picture of staffing in the sector. Below we set out the findings and the funding options for care providers. Smart Funding Solutions is a broker, not a lender: we compare whole-of-market options across 300+ lenders, arranging funding from £10,000 to £20 million.

01The headline findings

As Care England summarised, the report found:

• Vacancies fell to about 96,000, the lowest level in a decade.
• Workforce growth slowed, with filled posts rising by 1.4% compared with 3.2% the year before.
• International recruitment declined significantly, and there are fewer British workers in the sector.
• The sector could need an extra 410,000 posts by 2040 to keep pace with an ageing population.

Professor Oonagh Smyth, chief executive of Skills for Care, said it was "positive to see that the adult social care workforce is becoming more stable", but that "we need to do more to attract younger people and men into the sector", as The Care Home Environment reported. Under-25s make up just 7% of the workforce.

02Turnover and leadership

The report shows how much stable leadership matters:

• Registered manager turnover rose from 17% to 19.7%.
• Care worker turnover averaged 28.3% where the registered manager had been in post for under a year, against 20.6% where they had been in post for 20 years or more.
• Turnover was 15.3% among workers with five positive employment factors, such as competitive pay, guaranteed hours and training, against 34.3% among those with none.
• Care workers with five or more years' experience earn on average just 12p an hour more than those with less than a year.

Professor Martin Green, chief executive of Care England, said: "Of particular concern is the reversal in the long-term decline in registered manager turnover."

03What it means for care providers

Lower vacancies mean less spending on agency staff, which is good news for margins. But the report points to rising pressure on pay: the government plans a Fair Pay Agreement for care workers, and the Budget on 28 October could change employment costs. Providers who invest in pay, guaranteed hours and training are likely to keep staff longer, but that investment needs funding before it pays back.

Many providers also wait for local authority fees, which can be paid late or reviewed only once a year. That gap between paying staff weekly or monthly and being paid for care is where cash flow problems start.

04Funding options for care providers

• Invoice finance releases cash against invoices to local authorities and the NHS.
• Loans to pay wages cover payroll while you wait for fees.
• Care home refinancing can release equity or reduce repayments.
• Refurbishment finance funds improvements to rooms and facilities.
• Care home acquisition finance helps established operators expand. Our guide to valuing a care home explains what lenders check.

Our care home finance and care sector finance pages bring these together, and there are pages for home care agencies and supported living.

Lower vacancies mean less spending on agency staff, which is good news for margins.

05What lenders look at for care providers

Lenders who specialise in care look closely at quality and occupancy. Expect questions about your CQC rating and recent inspection reports, occupancy over the last year, the mix of local authority, NHS and private fee payers, and your staffing costs as a share of income, including agency spending. For property-backed borrowing, the value of the home as a going concern matters, and lenders will ask about the registered manager and the management team. A home with a good rating, stable occupancy and falling agency costs will usually find more lenders willing to help, and on better terms, than one with recent enforcement action.

06How to compare your options

1. Map out your payroll and when each local authority, NHS and private fee is paid.
2. Decide whether you need working capital, investment in your property or funding to grow.
3. Have your latest accounts, occupancy figures and CQC rating ready, as lenders will ask.
4. Use Instant Quotes to see your lender matches instantly, with no credit check.
5. Compare offers on total cost and how well repayments fit when your fees arrive.

A more stable workforce is good news, but it costs money to keep. Get your Instant Quotes to see which lenders could back your care business. Lenders make every decision, and all finance is subject to status.